Dominican incumbent eyes legacy in bid for third term

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (CNN) -- As Dominicans prepare to vote Friday for president, polls indicate strong support for incumbent Leonel Fernandez who rescued a flagging economy over the last four years.

"Unless all the analysts I've talked to are wrong, it looks as if Leonel Fernandez is going to win, and he's probably going to win the first round," said Peter Hakin, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank on hemispheric relations.

Key to the 54-year-old president's popularity was his adroit handling of the economy, which is among the fastest-growing in the region, Hakin said.

"His economic management team is expert, it is disciplined, it is focused, it is honest and that is the core of his appeal," said Christopher Mitchell, professor of politics at New York University and an expert on Latin America.

Born in Santo Domingo and raised in New York City, Fernandez first won the presidency in 1996 as a liberal, after conservative Joaquin Balaguer lost the tight grip on power he had held for most of the prior three decades.

Fernandez proved popular during his first term, when he was credited with helping to improve the impoverished nation's economy. But the constitution did not allow for a second consecutive presidential term, and he was replaced in 2000 by Hipolito Mejia, an agronomist whose rule was marked by massive corruption that riddled the banking system.

From 2000 to 2004, Mejia's watch was marked by a weak international economy and a series of domestic bank failures.

The biggest failure was Banco Intercontinental, the country's largest commercial bank, which was looted "by a politically well-connected management team" while the government failed to intervene, Mitchell said.

When the bank failed, Mejia stepped in. He "essentially reimbursed all the depositors by printing money, which rescued a lot of fat cats," but caused the country's exchange rate to plummet in the summer of 2004, the professor said.

Though Mejia altered the constitution to allow a president to serve back-to-back terms, he then lost his re-election bid to Fernandez, who won a second term four years ago with 57 percent of the vote.

The first thing he did was set about trying to repair the economy, an effort that has paid big dividends.

"Dominican banking officials have clawed their way back, under Fernandez, from that really terrible situation," Mitchell said.

In a symbol of how drastically things have changed, the building that once served as headquarters for Banco Intercontinental now houses a Hard Rock Cafe.

In addition, the country's credit among international investors has been restored and its once-rampant inflation is under control.

Shortly after returning to office, Fernandez proposed building the Caribbean's first subway in the Dominican capital city of Santo Domingo, going as far as to appoint to his Cabinet a secretary for the metro.

Though the massive publicly funded effort remains unfinished, its 14-kilometer north-south line opened in February, drawing criticism for its cost -- estimated by some at $700 million -- and praise for its ambition.

"It's taken by many in the country as an index of modernity, an indication that the country is arriving and maturing in the modern world," Mitchell said.

The president too has changed, recently laying claim to the legacy of former President Balaguer, thereby signaling a rightward move for his Dominican Liberation Party, or PLD, Mitchell said.

"It's a measure of his political suppleness that he has made that transition seemingly effortlessly, and has been able to bring the party with him," he said.

Still, his re-election is not assured.

If Fernandez fails to win an outright majority, a second round of voting would be held, which could give Dominican Revolutionary Party leader Miguel Vargas Maldonado a second shot and third-place candidate Amable Aristy Castro of the Social Christian Reformist Party the chance to play kingmaker.

"If it were go go to a second round, there would certainly be speculation about some kind of alliance between one of the two remaining candidates and Aristy, because his votes, in theory, would make the difference," Mitchell said.

Vargas, a 57-year-old civil engineer and businessman, served in Mejia's administration as secretary of public works in charge of building the sites for the 2003 Pan American Games in Santo Domingo.

After the games, Vargas was accused of financial irregularities through investments in the Dominican Republic.

On Tuesday, he described as "baseless" the implications of wrongdoing.

"We've always been open, transparent," he said.

Aristy, 59, promotes himself as the "the president of the poor." He was elected several times to the Senate and quit the job three times to work as general secretary of the Dominican Municipal League, which administers the nation's municipal governments.

Aristy maintains that Dominicans' principal problem is poverty and lack of food.

While campaigning in poor areas, he tosses whole salamis, chickens, pork and money to his sympathizers and promises to confront crime and improve the country's health care.

"It has been an out-and-out patronage-centered campaign," Mitchell said.

Aristy's party, though now the most conservative of the three, has a record of allying itself with the other two.

In 1996, its alliance with Fernandez gave him the edge for his first term, and two years ago, its alliance with the PRD helped that party win control of Congress, Mitchell said.

Should he win, Fernandez has not ruled out running for president a fourth time.

"I personally have said that I would favor the idea that a third consecutive mandate doesn't seem to me to be the most advisable," he said Wednesday.

But, he added, "I can't predict the future."

Still, the official PLD slogan has been, "Four years more, and then we'll talk."

Inter-American Dialogue's Hakin predicted that, after Friday's election, Fernandez would concentrate not on re-election, but on winding up his political career with an eye toward securing his place in history.

"This will almost certainly be his last term in office," Hakin said. "I think we're going to see a somewhat less openly political president, and someone who is more aiming to really establish a legacy."

Whoever wins, the next president can count on facing plenty of challenges. The cost of food and energy -- both of which are imports here -- has shot up in recent months. And there may be less money to pay for them. Dominicans are heavily dependent on remittances from the United States, which have been plummeting with the value of the dollar.

Some 42 percent of the country's 10 million residents live in poverty, and unemployment exceeds 15 percent. Economic growth has not been paralleled by investment in infrastructure. As a result, blackouts are common and public services need help.

Last year, the average Dominican made $9,200.

Still, the nation remains a magnet for its even poorer neighbor on the Island of Hispaniola: Haiti. Many Haitians cross the border to find work.

CNN's Claudia Palacios, Angeles Font, Luis Beltran and Diulka Perez contributed to this story.

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